Tuesday and Wednesday Champions League (5 unit play)

[KidA]

Hey guys, I'm posting my Champions League plays for Tuesday and Wednesday right now because I'm going to be a little caught up with school til then. Hopefully I'll find some free time catch the big game with Barca/ManU. GL to everyone.

UEFA Champions League

Wednesday
-Barcelona vs Manchester United-
Ok, here is the deal. Manchester United has had a great season, and I haven't heard of one single person saying they won't go through to the final. On the other hand, Barcelona haven't had a good season so far, but this is a COMPLETELY different game now. One of the main reasons I disagree with everyone about Manchester United going through is because of Barcelona's style of play. La Liga teams, as much as everyone hates to hear this, are pretty much better than teams in the Premier League, there is way more talent in those teams if you ask me, especially when you compare smaller clubs in La Liga to smaller clubs in the Premier League. No I am not saying Messi is better than Ronaldo or Eto'o is better than Torres, but you put a club like Wigan against a club like Almeria or Valladolid (two teams that were just promoted to La Liga), then Wigan, in my opinion, will get beat down. Barca play possession futbol. Manchester United? They play more of the long ball. Barcelona will frusterate them, and Barcelona will score goals. As far as Manchester United scoring a goal? Thats a tough one. I lean on YES. With Puyol missing for Barca, Manchester United will have a tiny bit of an easier time breaking through the defense. For me the BIG play is Barcelona. This will be my fifth 5 unit play of the season, (my record so far in five unit plays is 3-1). I'm also putting some money on the over as well as a play on Barcelona to go through to the final. If anyone has time on their hands, I suggest you wait out wagering if you decide to tail with this (other than the over). Barcelona at the Pk (-133) and Barcelona to advance (+149) should get way better as public will most likely be all over Manchester United. My guess is the Pk for Barca will go down to -115ish and the wager to advance should go up to +160-170ish before kickoff.
5 units
Barcelona Pk ... -133
1 unit
Over 2, 2.5 ... +104
2 units
Barcelona to advance ... +149

Tuesday
-Chelsea vs Liverpool-
This is a tough one in my opinion. Liverpool missing Gerrard? Yikes. Small play on Chelsea for me.
Chelsea Pk, +1/2 ... -108

237-207-22
53.37% (+53.42 units)

 

[HPark1]

La Liga teams, as much as everyone hates to hear this, are pretty much better than teams in the Premier League, there is way more talent in those teams if you ask me, especially when you compare smaller clubs in La Liga to smaller clubs in the Premier League. No I am not saying Messi is better than Ronaldo or Eto'o is better than Torres, but you put a club like Wigan against a club like Almeria or Valladolid (two teams that were just promoted to La Liga), then Wigan, in my opinion, will get beat down. Barca play possession futbol. Manchester United? They play more of the long ball. Barcelona will frusterate them, and Barcelona will score goals.

While a tend to agree La Liga has slightly more depth the gap is a lot less then you think. And I don't think you can use Almeria as an example, the team is 7th in the table and pushing for europe. Its irrelevant when a team was promoted. Anyways I think the gap appears greater then it is because the lower teams in the Premiership do play an ugly grind out style while basically all teams in La Liga play nicer looking football. Nicer style doesn't mean better team. I mean everytime I watch Rangers or Celtic I almost throw up and yet they qualify into the CL's group stages almost every year and usually one even ends up making to the knockout stages. You watch Rangers play a couple games and then watch Levante play a couple games and you could think Levante was a better team just based on style.

Anywho as for this particular game I agree Barcelona is the way to go. Utd. have been mediocre (and quite defensive) on their european travels. Barcelona are playing pretty well recently but are just not finishing. Sooner or later these chances will be converted into goals.

But what are you saying about Man United and long ball? :WTF:

If Man U play long ball what do you call Bolton's style? :lolBIG:

 

[rolltide]

La Liga, and Serie A for that matter, used to be a better league but it just simply is not the case anymore. The big teams in England are superior to the big ones in Spain (see 3 CL semifinalists) and I'll certainly take midtable EPL clubs over midtable La Liga ones. Perhaps Levante and Murcia are better than Fulham and Derby but that tells you nothing about the relative strength of the leagues

as far as this match goes I would never put my biggest bet of the year on any CL match and certainly not on a team that is underperforming. Sure some day they can wake up, play great football, and beat United 3-1 but that's a lot to ask for with a team that has played only one good match since Late February and have not beaten an English club at home in the last 3 tries.

United are notoriously awful in Spain though, winning just once in 16 trips

 

[MrCleo]

agree with Roll, its asking a lot of Barca. GL...as a fan of la liga, i used to believe la liga was a better league but i've concluded its just not the case.


i think looking at the teams sent by la liga to europe this year tells the case. none of these teams even made it to the quarters, and were in each case favored to advance.


villlareal being eliminated by Zenit

atletico madrid eliminated by Bolton

sevilla eliminated by Fenner

real madrid by roma


real lost to a quality opponent, but still that tie wasn't all that competitive. but the real problem with that list above?

aside from barca, these are considered to be the BEST teams from la liga.

personal prediction: within 2 years, Fabiano, Kanoute, Eto will all be in a different league. and it's already pretty much known Ronaldinho will be in Serie A next season

 

[KidA]

Thanks for the input guys. I really appreciate it.

Hpark, I should have made myself more clear when comparing La Liga to EPL. I did not mean that Real Madrid and Barcelona are better than the top four in EPL, I meant as a whole there is more talent for those big teams in La Liga to face, therefore giving teams like Real Madrid or Barcelona a harder time boasting records that Manchester United and Arsenal have. And Almeria is in fact compared to teams such as Wigan, Birmingham, Sunderland, etc. Actually, Wigan has a bigger piggy bank to get more expensive players, so if anything they should be considered the "better" side. Just because Almeria is doing well in the standings doesn't mean its a team that falls in comparison to a team like Sevilla. Being promoted to La Liga is completely relevant. It just proves my point that those small teams in La Liga have great talent. Also, no reason to compare Scottish teams, or even Italian teams at that. My point had to do solely between English teams and Spanish teams, who not only in your words play prettier futbol, but they actually get better results, thats why its so much tighter in La Liga as far as points go...
As far as that long ball statement, Manchester United, ESPECIALLY when compared to a team like Barcelona, don't hold nearly as much possession of the ball and play more of a long ball than any Spanish team. Just because Bolton play a lot more long ball than ManU doesn't mean that ManU doesn't play long ball.

 

[KidA]

BTW guys, a quick update, Liverpool will actually have Gerrard fit to play for the match, so if anyone decides to take Chelsea, make sure to keep it small.

 

[rolltide]

Thanks for the input guys. I really appreciate it.

And Almeria is in fact compared to teams such as Wigan, Birmingham, Sunderland, etc. Actually, Wigan has a bigger piggy bank to get more expensive players, so if anything they should be considered the "better" side.

brings up a quick question...anywhere to find estimated club payrolls?

I personally think mentioning Wigan in your discussion is wrong because it's pretty well known they are the worst run club in the EPL with a payroll double that of even Man City plus they've been promoted for 2 years now, not "newly promoted".

I guess the other issue is that you are sarastically saying Wigan should be considered the better side over Almeria due to the bigger bank and I'd say...they are

I have absolutely no clue where Almeria's payroll lies but very interested in a site that shows this information.

 

[Leafsfan34]

Was wondering where you had been Kid and glad to hear all is well!!!

Thanks for posting and GL today and tomorrow!!!

:howdy: :toast:

 

[HPark1]

As far as that long ball statement, Manchester United, ESPECIALLY when compared to a team like Barcelona, don't hold nearly as much possession of the ball and play more of a long ball than any Spanish team. Just because Bolton play a lot more long ball than ManU doesn't mean that ManU doesn't play long ball.

Its crazy to coin Man Utd as a long ball team because they hoof a few more direct balls than Barca. Barca, similar to Arsenal, play an extreme possession game that imo is inferior to other great teams who mix in possession with direct play.

Watching Arsenal and Barca play can be infuriating at times when they refuse to shoot from distance or play a direct ball all in the name of possession. With a better balance these teams could easily increase their scoring output. Keeping the ball on the ground doesn't equate to a greater team.

 

[rhinooooo]

Agree with HPark1 completely about the long ball thing. I think its good that Man Utd are able to mix it up, and they can get Rio or Vidic from the back or Scholes and Carrick dropping deep to hit good long balls and crossfield passes. I think it's also more prominent in the Premier league because teams defend higher up the pitch and generally press more, so there's more space to hit a long ball into.

Barca used to hit a few more long balls when they had Marquez at centreback. He used to hit some beautiful long passes, always pinpoint.

As for La Liga being better than the Premier League. I generally agree as well. Alot nicer football. It's just a case of the big four in the Premier League being generally richer than most other clubs.

Good luck with the plays mate. Good to see you back! :toast:

 

[KidA]

Rolltide, I'm not sure where you can get description on payroll for clubs. My source was actually from an article on soccernet.com comparing teams from EPL and La Liga.

HPark and Rhino, I'd honestly have to say that you have a great point with what you stated. Manchester United do mix it up a lot so you get to see Long Ball and Ground Ball as well. What I'm hoping Barcelona do is frustrate them by keeping the ball like they always do.
BTW Rhino, you will get to probably see some of those great plays from Marquez as he will probably step into the game with Puyol suspended and Thuram being injured to replace Puyol. In my opinion, Barca play better with Marquez as he usually is the start to many great passing plays that end in goals.

 

[KidA]

And to add in, Luck was finally on my side today, sorry to the horrible push and losses to all you Pool backers, I really wonder how the return leg is going to turn out, shouldn't be like those past games between the two sides as that own goal is going to have to make Liverpool open up big time.

 

[KidA]

1-1-1 (1 game pending til Tuesday) for this weeks Champions League


238-208-23
53.37% (+52.92units)